Effective Factors on the Recurrence of Bipolar Mood Disorder I in an Iranian Population Sample Using the Frailty Model with Bayesian Approach
-
Habiballah Esmaeeli
,
Ali Talaei
,
zahra arabborzu
,
Soleiman Kheyri
,
Monire Raeesi
,
Mahdieh Borhani
,
Anahita Saeedi
Abstract
Objective: Bipolar I disorder is one of the most frequent mental disorders characterized by manic or mixed +/- depressive episodes. Drug treatment has been proved to diminish next episodes, but many other factors are important for exacerbating the conditions. This study aimed to investigate the effective factors on the time and number of episodes in these patients by applying the shared frailty model.
Method: In this retrospective longitudinal study, the information of 606 patients with bipolar I disorder, admitted for the first time in Ibn-e-Sina psychiatric hospital in Mashhad from the beginning of 2007 until the end of 2009 were used. These patients were followed up until the end of 2018 for readmission. The Cox model with gamma frailty and Bayesian approach were used to determine the effective factors of frequent recurrences.
Results: History of head trauma, substance abuse, and legal conflict had a positive impact on recurrences, while age had a negative effect on recurrences and the risk of recurrence was higher in younger people (P < 0.05). The variance estimation of frailty effect was 0.97 that indicates a correlation between the recurrence intervals of bipolar I patients, owing to a heterogeneity among patients.
Conclusion: Based on the results, a higher risk of recurrence of bipolar I disorder was found in younger patients and those with a history of head trauma, substance abuse, and legal conflicts. Further investigations are required to account for the genetic factor and psychosocial exposure during critical periods applying this model.
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3. Belmaker R. Bipolar disorder.New England j of medicine( NEJM). 2004; 351(5): 476-86.
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8. Simhandl C, Radua J, König B, Amann BL. . Prevalence and impact of comorbid alcohol use disorder in bipolar disorder: A prospective follow-up study. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry. 2016;50(4):345-51.
9. Niolu C, Barone Y, Bianciardi E, Ribolsi M, Marchetta C, Robone C, et al. Predictors of poor adherence to treatment in inpatients with bipolar and psychotic spectrum disorders. Riv Psichiatr. 2015;50(6):285-94.
10. Johnson SL, Carver CS, Tharp JA. Suicidality in Bipolar Disorder: The Role of Emotion-Triggered Impulsivity. Suicide Life Threat Behav. 2017;47(2):177-92.
11. Chavez SB, Alvarado LA, Gonzalez R. Relationship Between Temperament and Character Traits, Mood, and Medications in Bipolar I Disorder. Prim Care Companion CNS Disord. 2016;18(3).
12. Hayes JF, Pitman A, Marston L, Walters K, Geddes JR, King M, et al. Self-harm, Unintentional Injury, and Suicide in Bipolar Disorder During Maintenance Mood Stabilizer Treatment: A UK Population-Based Electronic Health Records Study. JAMA Psychiatry. 2016;73(6):630-7.
13. Chakrabarti S. Treatment-adherence in bipolar disorder: A patient-centered approach. World J Psychiatry. 2016; 6(4): 399-409.
14. Berk L, Hallam KT, Venugopal K, Lewis AJ, Austin DW, Kulkarni J, et al. Impact of irritability: a 2-year observational study of outpatients with bipolar I or schizoaffective disorder. Bipolar Disord. 2017;19(3):184-97.
15. Correll CU, Yu X, Xiang Y, Kane JM, Masand P. Biological treatment of acute agitation or aggression with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder in the inpatient setting. Ann Clin Psychiatry. 2017;29(2):92-107.
16. Talaei A, Pourgholami M, Khatibi-Moghadam H, Faridhosseini F, Farhoudi F, Askari-Noghani A, et al. Tamoxifen: A Protein Kinase C Inhibitor to Treat Mania: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials. J Clin Psychopharmacol. 2016;36(3):272-5.
17. Fayyazi Bordbar MR, Soltanifar A, Talaei A. Short-term family-focused psycho-educational program for bipolar mood disorder in Mashhad. Iran J Med Sci. 2009; 34(2): 104-9.
18. Kahani M, Talaei A, Executive functions in patients with bipolar I disorder in recovery phase: A case-control study. Journal of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. 2013; 23(101): 96-103. (Persian).
19. Pikalov A, Tsai J, Mao Y, Silva R, Cucchiaro J, Loebel A. Long-term use of lurasidone in patients with bipolar disorder: safety and effectiveness over 2 years of treatment. Int J Bipolar Disord. 2017;5(1):9.
20. Ghoreishizadeh SM, Ranjbar F, Pezeshki MZ. The risk factors related to recurrence of bipolar I disorder and their relationship with demographic characteristics. Medical journal of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. 2009; 31(2): 77-81. (Persian)
21. Najafi-Vosough R, Ghaleiha A, Faradmal J, Mahjub H. Recurrence in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Its Risk Factors. Iran J Psychiatry. 2016;11(3):173-7.
22. Salvatore P, Tohen M, Khalsa HM, Baethge C, Tondo L, Baldessarini RJ. Longitudinal research on bipolar disorders. Epidemiol Psichiatr Soc. 2007;16(2):109-17.
23. Milne BJ, Caspi A, Harrington H, Poulton R, Rutter M, Moffitt TE. Predictive value of family history on severity of illness: the case for depression, anxiety, alcohol dependence, and drug dependence. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2009;66(7):738-47.
24. Levenson JC, Wallace ML, Anderson BP, Kupfer DJ, Frank E. Social rhythm disrupting events increase the risk of recurrence among individuals with bipolar disorder. Bipolar Disord. 2015;17(8):869-79.
25. Yen S, Stout R, Hower H, Killam MA, Weinstock LM, Topor DR, et al. The influence of comorbid disorders on the episodicity of bipolar disorder in youth. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2016;133(4): 324-34.
26. Maina G, Rosso G, Aguglia A, Bogetto F. Recurrence rates of bipolar disorder during the postpartum period: a study on 276 medication-free Italian women. Arch Womens Ment Health. 2014;17(5):367-72.
27. Col SE, Caykoylu A, Karakas Ugurlu G, Ugurlu M. Factors affecting treatment compliance in patients with bipolar I disorder during prophylaxis: a study from Turkey. Gen Hosp Psychiatry. 2014;36(2):208-13.
28. Yasui-Furukori N, Nakamura K. Bipolar disorder recurrence prevention using self-monitoring daily mood charts: case reports from a 5 year period. Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2017;13:733-6.
29. Dagne GA, Snyder J. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF REPEATED EVENTS USING EVENT-DEPENDENT FRAILTY MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO BEHAVIORAL OBSERVATION DATA. Commun Stat Theory Methods. 2010;39(2):293-310.
30. Cheng J, Iorio A, Marcucci M, Romanov V, Pullenayegum EM, Marshall JK, Thabane L. Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study. Journal of blood medicine. 2016;7(1):239.
31. Akiskal HS. Mood disorders. In: Sadock BJ, Sadock VA. Comprehensive textbook of psychiatry. 8th ed. New York: Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. 2005; 718-1559.
32. Gilman SE, Kawachi I, Fitzmaurice GM, Buka L. Socio-economic status, family disruption and residential stability in childhood: relation to onset, recurrence and remission of major depression. Psychol Med. 2003;33(8):1341-55.
33. Birmaher B, Williamson DE, Dahl RE, Axelson DA, Kaufman J, Dorn LD, et al. Clinical presentation and course of depression in youth: does onset in childhood differ from onset in adolescence? J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2004;43(1):63-70.
34. Kovacs M, Obrosky DS, Sherrill J. Developmental changes in the phenomenology of depression in girls compared to boys from childhood onward. J Affect Disord. 2003;74(1):33-48.
35. Schuckit MA. Alcohol-use disorders. Lancet. 2009;373(9662):492-501.
36. Grant BF, Stinson FS, Hasin DS, al. e. Prevalence, correlates, and comorbidity of bipolar I disorder and axis I and II disorders: results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. J Clin Psychiatry. 2005; 66(10): 1205-15.
37. Soheir H El, Hala F, Shafei A, Hanan H, Ola M. The impact of substance abuse on the severity of manic relapse in bipolar disorder. Middle East Curr Psychiatry. 2014; 21(4): 222-9.
38. Taheri SS, Khodayie MR, Karimlou M, Rahgozar M. Identifying risk factors of time to releases in patients with bipolar disorder using penalized likelihood model with shared gamma frailty compared with with-out frailty model. Razi journal of medical sciences. 2016; 23(142): 9-42. (Persian).
39. Antypa N, Serretti A. Family history of a mood disorder indicates a more severe bipolar disorder. J Affect Disord. 2014;156:178-86.
40. Raymont V, Bettany D, Frangou S. The Maudsley Bipolar Disorder Project: clinical characteristics of bipolar disorder I in a catchment area treatment sample. Eur Psychiatry. 2003; 18(1): 7-13.
41. Kessler RC. Gender differences in major depression. Gender and its effects on psychopathology. 2000:61-84.
42. Kuehner C. Gender differences in unipolar depression: an update of epidemiological findings and possible explanations. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2003;108(3):163-74.
43. Kennedy N, Boydell J, Kalidindi S, Fearon P, Jones PB, van Os J, et al. Gender differences in incidence and age at onset of mania and bipolar disorder over a 35-year period in Camberwell, England. Am J Psychiatry. 2005;162(2):257-62.
44. David AS, Prince M. Psychosis following head injury: a critical review. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2005;76 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):i53-60.
45. Albrecht JS, Barbour L, Abariga SA, Rao V, Perfetto EM. Risk of depression after traumatic brain injury in a large national sample. Journal of neurotrauma. 2019 ;36(2):300-7.
2. Laxman KE, Lovibond KS, Hassan MK. Impact of bipolar disorder in employed populations. The American Journal of Managed Care(AJMC). 2008;14(11):757-64.
3. Belmaker R. Bipolar disorder.New England j of medicine( NEJM). 2004; 351(5): 476-86.
4. Gold LH, Frierson RL, editors. The American Psychiatric Publishing textbook of forensic psychiatry. American Psychiatric Pub. 2017.
5. Sharifi V, Amin-Esmaeili M, Hajebi A, Motevalian A, Radgoodarzi R, Hefazi M, et al. Twelve-month prevalence and correlates of psychiatric disorders in Iran: the Iranian Mental Health Survey, 2011. Arch Iran Med. 2015;18(2):76-84.
6. Talaei A, Tavakkol Afshari J, Fayyazi Bordbar MR, Pouryousof H, Faridhosseini F, Saghebi A, et al. A study on the association of Interleukin-1 cluster with genetic risk in bipolar I disorder in Iranian patients: A case-control study. Iran J Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2016; 15(6): 466-75.
7. Simhandl C, Radua J, König B, Amann BL. The prevalence and effect of life events in 222 bipolar I and II patients: a prospective, naturalistic 4 year follow-up study. J Affect Disord. 2015;170:166-71.
8. Simhandl C, Radua J, König B, Amann BL. . Prevalence and impact of comorbid alcohol use disorder in bipolar disorder: A prospective follow-up study. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry. 2016;50(4):345-51.
9. Niolu C, Barone Y, Bianciardi E, Ribolsi M, Marchetta C, Robone C, et al. Predictors of poor adherence to treatment in inpatients with bipolar and psychotic spectrum disorders. Riv Psichiatr. 2015;50(6):285-94.
10. Johnson SL, Carver CS, Tharp JA. Suicidality in Bipolar Disorder: The Role of Emotion-Triggered Impulsivity. Suicide Life Threat Behav. 2017;47(2):177-92.
11. Chavez SB, Alvarado LA, Gonzalez R. Relationship Between Temperament and Character Traits, Mood, and Medications in Bipolar I Disorder. Prim Care Companion CNS Disord. 2016;18(3).
12. Hayes JF, Pitman A, Marston L, Walters K, Geddes JR, King M, et al. Self-harm, Unintentional Injury, and Suicide in Bipolar Disorder During Maintenance Mood Stabilizer Treatment: A UK Population-Based Electronic Health Records Study. JAMA Psychiatry. 2016;73(6):630-7.
13. Chakrabarti S. Treatment-adherence in bipolar disorder: A patient-centered approach. World J Psychiatry. 2016; 6(4): 399-409.
14. Berk L, Hallam KT, Venugopal K, Lewis AJ, Austin DW, Kulkarni J, et al. Impact of irritability: a 2-year observational study of outpatients with bipolar I or schizoaffective disorder. Bipolar Disord. 2017;19(3):184-97.
15. Correll CU, Yu X, Xiang Y, Kane JM, Masand P. Biological treatment of acute agitation or aggression with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder in the inpatient setting. Ann Clin Psychiatry. 2017;29(2):92-107.
16. Talaei A, Pourgholami M, Khatibi-Moghadam H, Faridhosseini F, Farhoudi F, Askari-Noghani A, et al. Tamoxifen: A Protein Kinase C Inhibitor to Treat Mania: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trials. J Clin Psychopharmacol. 2016;36(3):272-5.
17. Fayyazi Bordbar MR, Soltanifar A, Talaei A. Short-term family-focused psycho-educational program for bipolar mood disorder in Mashhad. Iran J Med Sci. 2009; 34(2): 104-9.
18. Kahani M, Talaei A, Executive functions in patients with bipolar I disorder in recovery phase: A case-control study. Journal of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. 2013; 23(101): 96-103. (Persian).
19. Pikalov A, Tsai J, Mao Y, Silva R, Cucchiaro J, Loebel A. Long-term use of lurasidone in patients with bipolar disorder: safety and effectiveness over 2 years of treatment. Int J Bipolar Disord. 2017;5(1):9.
20. Ghoreishizadeh SM, Ranjbar F, Pezeshki MZ. The risk factors related to recurrence of bipolar I disorder and their relationship with demographic characteristics. Medical journal of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. 2009; 31(2): 77-81. (Persian)
21. Najafi-Vosough R, Ghaleiha A, Faradmal J, Mahjub H. Recurrence in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Its Risk Factors. Iran J Psychiatry. 2016;11(3):173-7.
22. Salvatore P, Tohen M, Khalsa HM, Baethge C, Tondo L, Baldessarini RJ. Longitudinal research on bipolar disorders. Epidemiol Psichiatr Soc. 2007;16(2):109-17.
23. Milne BJ, Caspi A, Harrington H, Poulton R, Rutter M, Moffitt TE. Predictive value of family history on severity of illness: the case for depression, anxiety, alcohol dependence, and drug dependence. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2009;66(7):738-47.
24. Levenson JC, Wallace ML, Anderson BP, Kupfer DJ, Frank E. Social rhythm disrupting events increase the risk of recurrence among individuals with bipolar disorder. Bipolar Disord. 2015;17(8):869-79.
25. Yen S, Stout R, Hower H, Killam MA, Weinstock LM, Topor DR, et al. The influence of comorbid disorders on the episodicity of bipolar disorder in youth. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2016;133(4): 324-34.
26. Maina G, Rosso G, Aguglia A, Bogetto F. Recurrence rates of bipolar disorder during the postpartum period: a study on 276 medication-free Italian women. Arch Womens Ment Health. 2014;17(5):367-72.
27. Col SE, Caykoylu A, Karakas Ugurlu G, Ugurlu M. Factors affecting treatment compliance in patients with bipolar I disorder during prophylaxis: a study from Turkey. Gen Hosp Psychiatry. 2014;36(2):208-13.
28. Yasui-Furukori N, Nakamura K. Bipolar disorder recurrence prevention using self-monitoring daily mood charts: case reports from a 5 year period. Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2017;13:733-6.
29. Dagne GA, Snyder J. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF REPEATED EVENTS USING EVENT-DEPENDENT FRAILTY MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO BEHAVIORAL OBSERVATION DATA. Commun Stat Theory Methods. 2010;39(2):293-310.
30. Cheng J, Iorio A, Marcucci M, Romanov V, Pullenayegum EM, Marshall JK, Thabane L. Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study. Journal of blood medicine. 2016;7(1):239.
31. Akiskal HS. Mood disorders. In: Sadock BJ, Sadock VA. Comprehensive textbook of psychiatry. 8th ed. New York: Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. 2005; 718-1559.
32. Gilman SE, Kawachi I, Fitzmaurice GM, Buka L. Socio-economic status, family disruption and residential stability in childhood: relation to onset, recurrence and remission of major depression. Psychol Med. 2003;33(8):1341-55.
33. Birmaher B, Williamson DE, Dahl RE, Axelson DA, Kaufman J, Dorn LD, et al. Clinical presentation and course of depression in youth: does onset in childhood differ from onset in adolescence? J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2004;43(1):63-70.
34. Kovacs M, Obrosky DS, Sherrill J. Developmental changes in the phenomenology of depression in girls compared to boys from childhood onward. J Affect Disord. 2003;74(1):33-48.
35. Schuckit MA. Alcohol-use disorders. Lancet. 2009;373(9662):492-501.
36. Grant BF, Stinson FS, Hasin DS, al. e. Prevalence, correlates, and comorbidity of bipolar I disorder and axis I and II disorders: results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. J Clin Psychiatry. 2005; 66(10): 1205-15.
37. Soheir H El, Hala F, Shafei A, Hanan H, Ola M. The impact of substance abuse on the severity of manic relapse in bipolar disorder. Middle East Curr Psychiatry. 2014; 21(4): 222-9.
38. Taheri SS, Khodayie MR, Karimlou M, Rahgozar M. Identifying risk factors of time to releases in patients with bipolar disorder using penalized likelihood model with shared gamma frailty compared with with-out frailty model. Razi journal of medical sciences. 2016; 23(142): 9-42. (Persian).
39. Antypa N, Serretti A. Family history of a mood disorder indicates a more severe bipolar disorder. J Affect Disord. 2014;156:178-86.
40. Raymont V, Bettany D, Frangou S. The Maudsley Bipolar Disorder Project: clinical characteristics of bipolar disorder I in a catchment area treatment sample. Eur Psychiatry. 2003; 18(1): 7-13.
41. Kessler RC. Gender differences in major depression. Gender and its effects on psychopathology. 2000:61-84.
42. Kuehner C. Gender differences in unipolar depression: an update of epidemiological findings and possible explanations. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2003;108(3):163-74.
43. Kennedy N, Boydell J, Kalidindi S, Fearon P, Jones PB, van Os J, et al. Gender differences in incidence and age at onset of mania and bipolar disorder over a 35-year period in Camberwell, England. Am J Psychiatry. 2005;162(2):257-62.
44. David AS, Prince M. Psychosis following head injury: a critical review. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2005;76 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):i53-60.
45. Albrecht JS, Barbour L, Abariga SA, Rao V, Perfetto EM. Risk of depression after traumatic brain injury in a large national sample. Journal of neurotrauma. 2019 ;36(2):300-7.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 16 No 2 (2021) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/ijps.v16i2.5813 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Bayesian Analysis Bipolar Disorder Recurrence | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Esmaeeli H, Talaei A, arabborzu zahra, Kheyri S, Raeesi M, Borhani M, Saeedi A. Effective Factors on the Recurrence of Bipolar Mood Disorder I in an Iranian Population Sample Using the Frailty Model with Bayesian Approach. Iran J Psychiatry. 2021;16(2):131-136.
